Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.10     87.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  27.1  32.1  42.1  46.2  51.5  53.2  58.7  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.4 116.6 114.8 113.0 106.0  82.9  65.9  52.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  13.0  11.0  16.0  62.0  54.0  50.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  56.0  50.0  45.0  40.0  38.0  43.0  44.0  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0  -3.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   6.0  -2.0  -5.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons