Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210901 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.80     85.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.7  36.3  49.4  52.7  68.0  90.9  90.9  90.9  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   3.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        111.6 106.2 102.7  97.7  51.2  33.5  33.5  33.5  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  22.0  21.0  34.0  72.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  51.0  47.0  46.0  51.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U VU VU  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0   3.0 -15.0  18.0 -57.0 -57.0 -57.0  F  F  N VF VU VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons