Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.70     83.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  47.3  53.1  61.0  79.8  92.5  92.5  92.5  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.8 104.4  96.1  68.8  28.7  36.8  36.8  36.8  N  N  N  U VU  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  18.0  34.0  52.0  70.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  46.0  44.0  48.0  56.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  U VU VU  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0  -6.0 -49.0  16.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  F  N  F VF  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons