Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.70     81.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.1  54.8  65.0  70.2  83.1  81.2  81.2  81.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.7  96.1  68.8  44.6  27.3  35.9  35.9  35.9  N  N  U  U VU  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  26.0  30.0  58.0  19.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  44.0  47.0  50.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  57.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -8.0   5.0  22.0 -22.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  N  F  N VU VF VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons