Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.20     78.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    153.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        55.6  67.5  74.8  82.6  89.9  89.9  89.9  89.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.2  60.9  36.8  27.3  36.8  36.8  36.8  36.8  N  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  33.0  49.0  72.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  49.0  53.0  57.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0 VU  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -16.0  14.0  26.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  46.0 VF VF  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons