Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092021 210902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.60     72.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        74.1  79.9  87.4  90.8  90.8  90.8  90.8  90.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         34.6  18.7  20.6  27.2  27.2  27.2  27.2  27.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  67.0  66.0 104.0 104.0 104.0 104.0 104.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  56.0  61.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.0  22.0  -5.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  31.0 VU VU  F VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons