Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102021 210828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70     49.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  24.7  23.9  26.4  25.0  31.4  30.4  25.5  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  21.0  17.0  16.0  20.0  32.0  22.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.4 110.5 108.5 108.5 106.6 108.5 112.4 118.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -38.0   4.0  23.0  20.0  23.0 -10.0  22.0  36.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  54.0  51.0  48.0  48.0  50.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.0%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        5.9%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        2.2%        1.5%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons