Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102021 210828 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20     50.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  27.5  28.8  25.1  31.5  27.9  26.1  15.4  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  17.0  18.0  22.0  35.0  18.0  18.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.5 106.6 106.6 106.6 110.5 112.4 118.6 125.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  19.0 -10.0  -7.0   7.0  -9.0  32.0  21.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  51.0  51.0  52.0  55.0  52.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        1.3%        1.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons