Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102021 210829 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20     49.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  31.0  27.3  26.8  36.7  27.0  19.5  10.6  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  21.0  27.0  35.0  17.0  21.0  19.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        106.6 106.6 108.5 108.5 114.4 118.6 122.9 132.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  -8.0   1.0  19.0  14.0  48.0   4.0 -11.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  50.0  48.0  49.0  53.0  55.0  54.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   5.0   2.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%        1.8%        1.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons