Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102021 210829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80     49.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.6  25.2  24.6  32.8  27.4  25.9  15.7  15.3  U  N  N  U  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  28.0  35.0  29.0  16.0  21.0  15.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        106.6 108.5 108.5 112.4 116.5 120.7 127.3 132.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0  10.0  18.0  22.0  59.0  15.0  23.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  49.0  51.0  55.0  55.0  51.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   3.0   4.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        3.3%        2.9%        3.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons