Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102021 210829 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40     50.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  26.9  34.2  37.7  27.6  24.3  12.4  11.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  35.0  20.0  16.0  17.0  16.0  18.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.5 112.4 114.4 116.5 122.9 127.3 132.0 134.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  34.0  23.0  19.0  24.0  10.0   1.0 -13.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  49.0  51.0  52.0  56.0  53.0  47.0  47.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   5.0   1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        3.7%        2.8%        3.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons