Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102021 210829 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30     50.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  38.1  40.8  33.7  32.2  22.1  16.3  13.4  N  U VU  U  U  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  18.0  15.0  16.0  17.0  19.0  20.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.4 116.5 116.5 118.6 125.1 129.6 134.3 134.3  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  34.0   0.0  -7.0 -22.0  -6.0  18.0  -2.0  N  N  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  51.0  52.0  55.0  56.0  50.0  49.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   5.0   3.0   4.0   8.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.1%        2.8%        2.4%