Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102021 210830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80     50.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.1  42.8  35.5  34.2  31.6  21.3  23.2  14.3  U VU  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  16.0  15.0  16.0  16.0  15.0  29.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.4 118.6 118.6 120.7 127.3 132.0 134.3 134.3  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0   2.0  -6.0 -22.0  30.0  23.0 -15.0  11.0  U  U  U VU  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  54.0  56.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        1.8%        1.7%