Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102021 210830 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50     50.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.8  38.8  37.1  37.2  24.1  18.8  16.4  17.2 VU  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  16.0  17.0  17.0  15.0  15.0  25.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        118.6 120.7 120.7 122.9 127.3 132.0 134.3 135.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  -9.0 -30.0 -10.0  21.0  17.0 -17.0 -18.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  54.0  55.0  54.0  50.0  50.0  48.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        2.0%        1.4%