Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102021 210830 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20     50.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.3  35.7  37.3  30.7  19.6  18.8  18.5  18.6  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  18.0  19.0  18.0  19.0  18.0  20.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 120.7 120.7 120.7 127.3 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0 -31.0 -24.0  -5.0 -20.0   1.0  14.0 -34.0  U VU VU  U VU  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  53.0  51.0  50.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        2.7%        2.0%