Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102021 210831 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60     50.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.1  30.3  21.9  20.0  17.7  17.9  15.8  14.0  U  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  22.0  20.0  18.0  18.0  19.0  29.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.9 120.1 122.3 124.6 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0 -17.0 -17.0 -11.0  15.0  15.0  -2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  48.0  49.0  46.0  45.0  45.0  43.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   2.0  -2.0   1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        5.6%        3.6%        4.6%