Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102021 210831 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80     50.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  23.8  21.6  18.6  19.2  15.7  15.7  12.7  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  21.0  19.0  18.0  20.0  21.0  37.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.1 122.3 124.6 129.3 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0  -6.0 -10.0  17.0 -22.0 -21.0  11.0   4.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  47.0  46.0  46.0  48.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   0.0   1.0  -3.0   3.0  -2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.5%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        5.0%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        2.7%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        7.2%        6.5%        6.9%