Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102021 210831 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20     50.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  23.8  21.3  20.6  21.0  17.1  14.2  12.7  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  24.0  22.0  22.0  17.0  31.0  24.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.3 129.6 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0 -11.0   3.0  -7.0 -48.0 -33.0   9.0  12.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  48.0  47.0  45.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   4.0   0.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        3.4%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        4.4%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        2.7%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        8.6%        6.9%        7.7%