Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102021 210831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.10     50.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  21.9  24.1  23.0  18.2  21.2  17.7  20.4  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  23.0  23.0  20.0  22.0  26.0  15.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.6 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0   5.0  -3.0 -40.0 -11.0  -3.0   3.0  29.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  49.0  49.0  48.0  44.0  44.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        3.3%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.2%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        2.5%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        6.7%        4.5%        5.6%