Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102021 210901 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00     51.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  23.5  24.2  22.9  20.0  18.5  19.8  22.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  21.0  17.0  18.0  35.0  18.0  13.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 118.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0  -7.0 -24.0 -40.0 -19.0  -4.0  18.0  29.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  45.0  43.0  46.0  50.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0   3.0  -1.0   4.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        7.3%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%       10.2%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        5.5%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        2.5%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        6.7%        7.9%        7.3%