Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102021 210901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.30     51.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  23.4  23.2  22.2  22.9  20.1  21.3  21.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  19.0  16.0  21.0  27.0  15.0  10.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 125.1 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0 -17.0 -61.0 -51.0  -5.0   9.0  17.0  17.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  48.0  47.0  47.0  43.0  45.0  44.0  44.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        6.8%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.1%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        2.1%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        8.9%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        4.6%        2.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        5.0%        6.3%        5.7%