Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102021 210901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.10     51.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  24.1  23.6  23.2  24.1  24.0  23.4  23.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  20.0  22.0  26.0  14.0  15.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 129.6 118.6 118.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -22.0 -67.0 -36.0 -22.0 -11.0  21.0  40.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  48.0  46.0  43.0  43.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   3.0  -1.0   3.0  -5.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.8%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%       12.6%        6.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        5.3%        3.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        4.9%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.9%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%       16.3%        8.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.7%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        6.2%        3.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        3.4%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%        7.4%        5.2%