Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102021 210901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00     52.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  23.9  26.0  28.2  25.5  30.6  30.6  30.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  26.0  17.0  14.0  14.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 134.6 123.6 123.6 123.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -70.0 -15.0 -24.0  -2.0   0.0  14.0  14.0  14.0 VU  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  43.0  41.0  40.0  42.0  40.0  40.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        2.9%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.6%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%        1.6%        1.7%