Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.80     20.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  19.5  18.9  16.2  15.8  19.4  19.4  24.8  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  11.0  13.0  14.0   8.0   7.0  18.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        106.6 110.5 114.4 118.6 118.6 114.4 108.5 104.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    89.0  65.0  62.0  68.0  88.0 125.0 116.0 108.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  81.0  81.0  80.0  74.0  68.0  66.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -10.0  -8.0 -10.0  -7.0  -7.0 -17.0  -6.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        7.4%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.8%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.3%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%       17.2%        9.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.5%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        7.5%        4.6%        6.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.6%        7.5%        6.1%
 65kt / 72h       11.7%       16.4%       14.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons