Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210901 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90     22.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  16.5  15.8  16.6  16.4  14.8  20.8  27.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  11.0  10.0  10.0   7.0  17.0  19.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.4 114.4 118.6 120.7 116.5 106.6 101.2  96.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  64.0  43.0  78.0  99.0 120.0 123.0 106.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  75.0  72.0  68.0  64.0  60.0  51.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0  -9.0  -6.0  -9.0 -13.0 -12.0 -10.0   0.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%       11.3%        6.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        4.9%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        4.1%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.0%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%       23.0%       12.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.8%        4.9%
 55kt / 48h        9.7%        6.4%        8.1%
 70kt / 48h        6.4%       11.4%        8.9%
 65kt / 72h       13.9%       16.7%       15.3%