Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20     23.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  17.4  18.9  16.7  16.0  14.4  24.6  21.7  F  F  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  11.0  10.0   9.0   9.0  16.0  19.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.4 108.6 110.7 108.6 100.5  94.8  89.4  86.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  29.0  93.0  71.0 105.0  75.0  76.0  25.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  68.0  67.0  60.0  51.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -10.0 -11.0 -10.0 -13.0 -10.0  -5.0  -1.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        4.3%        4.0%
 25kt / 24h       10.3%       24.5%       17.4%
 30kt / 24h        5.4%       12.7%        9.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%       12.5%        7.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%       12.4%        7.3%
 45kt / 36h        8.9%       37.3%       23.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       20.2%       10.1%
 55kt / 48h       13.9%        9.6%       11.7%
 70kt / 48h        9.6%       17.9%       13.7%
 65kt / 72h        6.3%       15.2%       10.8%