Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30     26.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  19.6  18.9  18.1  16.1  18.3  22.4  22.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   7.0   6.0   5.0  17.0  12.0  10.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.6 110.7 108.6 104.4  98.5  96.6  93.0  93.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  58.0  71.0  82.0 106.0  76.0  39.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  73.0  69.0  66.0  63.0  52.0  49.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -15.0 -17.0 -21.0 -15.0 -16.0  -4.0  -4.0  F VF VF VF VF VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        4.3%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        7.7%       22.9%       15.3%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%       12.8%        8.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%       12.8%        7.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       11.9%        6.3%
 45kt / 36h        4.1%       31.8%       17.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.6%        8.3%
 55kt / 48h        7.1%        5.0%        6.0%
 70kt / 48h        5.0%       13.8%        9.4%
 65kt / 72h        5.0%       14.3%        9.6%