Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40     28.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  20.0  14.9  17.0  17.1  24.0  19.8  19.8  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   6.0   5.0  11.0  17.0   9.0  20.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.7  93.6  89.4  83.5  81.6  78.0  74.4  81.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  26.0  56.0 123.0  62.0  52.0   9.0  30.0  U  U  N  F  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  71.0  69.0  66.0  64.0  56.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0 -15.0 -12.0 -11.0  -8.0  -3.0  -2.0  -4.0 VF VF  F  F  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.0%       14.6%       15.3%
 25kt / 24h       25.2%       40.7%       32.9%
 30kt / 24h       17.5%       32.7%       25.1%
 35kt / 24h       17.5%       32.7%       25.1%
 40kt / 24h        8.3%       31.0%       19.7%
 45kt / 36h       13.3%       42.8%       28.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       27.7%       13.9%
 55kt / 48h        6.9%        4.7%        5.8%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%       12.9%        8.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        8.8%        4.9%