Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60     30.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  17.3  17.1  15.6  17.1  22.5  17.4  18.2  N  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   6.0  13.0  17.0  12.0  15.0  15.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         86.5  82.4  78.5  78.5  73.0  71.2  74.8  80.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  93.0 123.0  92.0  32.0  25.0  52.0  54.0  N  F  F  F  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  60.0  54.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -11.0 -13.0 -10.0  -6.0   0.0  -4.0  -2.0 VF  F VF  F  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.4%        8.2%       12.8%
 25kt / 24h       21.6%       25.9%       23.7%
 30kt / 24h       16.6%       16.7%       16.7%
 35kt / 24h       12.9%       16.7%       14.8%
 40kt / 24h       12.9%       16.7%       14.8%
 45kt / 36h       12.9%       21.1%       17.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.9%        4.9%
 55kt / 48h        4.6%        3.6%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        4.8%        3.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons