Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90     31.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  17.7  17.9  16.7  17.6  17.3  18.4  10.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0  13.0  15.0  18.0   8.0  19.0  16.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.4  73.5  71.6  69.8  66.2  64.4  73.5  75.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0 107.0 110.0  71.0  60.0  66.0  49.0  26.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  62.0  54.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -13.0 -14.0 -11.0  -3.0  -1.0   2.0  -4.0 VF VF VF  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.9%        9.9%       12.4%
 25kt / 24h       23.4%       28.6%       26.0%
 30kt / 24h       15.3%       21.1%       18.2%
 35kt / 24h       10.9%       21.1%       16.0%
 40kt / 24h       10.3%       20.2%       15.2%
 45kt / 36h       11.8%       22.0%       16.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.8%        5.4%
 55kt / 48h        6.9%        4.8%        5.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons