Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30     33.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  17.9  17.7  16.6  14.3  15.7  13.0  12.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  14.0  17.0   6.0  13.0  13.0  35.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         66.6  64.8  63.0  63.0  59.4  66.6  70.5  72.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0 101.0  84.0  40.0 118.0  99.0  38.0  48.0  N  F  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  61.0  55.0  49.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -15.0 -13.0  -8.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  F VF VF  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.9%       13.8%       17.8%
 25kt / 24h       26.0%       30.9%       28.5%
 30kt / 24h       17.7%       25.8%       21.8%
 35kt / 24h       15.6%       25.8%       20.7%
 40kt / 24h       11.6%       24.0%       17.8%
 45kt / 36h       14.9%       24.3%       19.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons