Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50     35.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  18.9  15.4  15.1  11.4  13.1  12.0  16.6  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  16.0   6.0   4.0  11.0  22.0  26.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         66.6  64.8  63.0  63.0  63.0  70.5  70.5  76.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    99.0  61.0  45.0  49.0  60.0  30.0  33.0  23.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  63.0  57.0  52.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -15.0  -9.0  -5.0  -1.0   3.0  -2.0  -4.0 VF VF  F  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.4%        8.7%       10.6%
 25kt / 24h       17.7%       23.8%       20.8%
 30kt / 24h       11.4%       19.4%       15.4%
 35kt / 24h        9.1%       19.4%       14.3%
 40kt / 24h        5.9%       17.5%       11.7%
 45kt / 36h        9.7%       18.6%       14.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        7.8%        5.6%        6.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons