Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90     36.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  13.4  13.6  14.1  13.2  11.1  14.2  14.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0   6.0   3.0  11.0  12.0  31.0  26.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         58.0  58.0  56.2  56.2  61.6  65.5  67.4  75.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  77.0  63.0  82.0  84.0  33.0  14.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  69.0  65.0  62.0  58.0  50.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -8.0  -5.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.9%        8.9%       12.4%
 25kt / 24h       18.5%       21.7%       20.1%
 30kt / 24h       13.5%       17.5%       15.5%
 35kt / 24h       10.5%       17.5%       14.0%
 40kt / 24h        9.3%       16.5%       12.9%
 45kt / 36h       13.8%       14.9%       14.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons