Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40     38.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  12.1  11.8  10.9  10.1  10.1  15.2  18.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   3.0  12.0  10.0  20.0  27.0  30.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         51.2  49.4  49.4  51.2  58.5  60.5  66.5  75.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  42.0  98.0  98.0  67.0  27.0  27.0 -12.0  U  N  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  65.0  63.0  58.0  53.0  50.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -8.0  -5.0  -5.0  -2.0  -5.0   0.0  -2.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.4%       10.7%       16.0%
 25kt / 24h       19.3%       21.7%       20.5%
 30kt / 24h       16.3%       17.5%       16.9%
 35kt / 24h       13.6%       17.5%       15.5%
 40kt / 24h       12.0%       16.8%       14.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons