Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60     40.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  12.8  11.8   9.3   9.6  14.0  15.0  16.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0  12.0  10.0  13.0  35.0  24.0  31.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         51.2  49.4  53.0  56.6  60.5  64.4  70.7  79.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   102.0 100.0  78.0  56.0  45.0  32.0   8.0  11.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  64.0  61.0  60.0  55.0  52.0  49.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0  -5.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  -2.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.8%        9.0%       11.4%
 25kt / 24h       20.8%       24.4%       22.6%
 30kt / 24h       14.4%       21.3%       17.8%
 35kt / 24h       10.9%       21.3%       16.1%
 40kt / 24h        8.6%       19.4%       14.0%
 45kt / 36h       20.9%       21.5%       21.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons