Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80     41.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  12.6  10.0   8.8  10.1  14.6  14.2  15.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  11.0  13.0  23.0  27.0  28.0  46.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         51.2  53.0  56.6  60.5  62.4  66.5  75.1  82.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   128.0  93.0  67.0  18.0  28.0  15.0   8.0   0.0  F  F  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  58.0  58.0  53.0  50.0  50.0  47.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.7%        6.8%        8.3%
 25kt / 24h       19.0%       23.5%       21.3%
 30kt / 24h       11.9%       20.4%       16.2%
 35kt / 24h        7.6%       20.4%       14.0%
 40kt / 24h        6.5%       18.4%       12.5%
 45kt / 36h       18.0%       17.3%       17.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons