Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50     45.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.6  11.9  12.7  12.7  13.1  16.5  14.5  17.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  34.0  32.0  35.0  31.0  38.0  37.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         28.5  30.5  30.5  32.4  40.7  47.3  54.3  55.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  26.0  35.0  34.0   9.0 -10.0 -17.0  15.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  56.0  54.0  51.0  52.0  51.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -7.0  -5.0  -3.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   5.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.3%        0.0%        8.1%
 25kt / 24h        7.8%        8.7%        8.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons