Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210904 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10     46.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.0  15.2  14.3  15.0  18.2  15.5  17.9  15.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  31.0  37.0  33.0  39.0  28.0  45.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         30.5  30.5  32.4  36.5  45.1  52.0  55.0  55.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  26.0  23.0  34.0  -3.0   2.0 -38.0  41.0  U  U  U  N  U  U VU  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  52.0  52.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  53.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   5.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.3%        4.0%        7.1%
 25kt / 24h        4.2%        5.7%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons