Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210905 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70     47.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  17.2  17.3  18.1  23.7  17.8  21.4  14.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  37.0  34.0  30.0  35.0  36.0  49.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         35.5  37.4  41.5  45.7  52.3  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  16.0  30.0  18.0 -16.0   7.0  13.0  69.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  51.0  50.0  51.0  53.0  55.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   6.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        1.4%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        2.6%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        1.6%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons