Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40     48.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  16.0  17.9  20.5  19.0  18.6  18.1  13.6  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  32.0  27.0  31.0  25.0  48.0  44.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         37.4  41.5  45.7  50.1  57.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  38.0   9.0  -7.0  -8.0  -6.0  48.0  34.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  49.0  51.0  51.0  56.0  55.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        2.0%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        3.9%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        2.6%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        2.4%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%