Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10     49.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  16.4  18.9  21.7  18.8  21.7  13.8  13.4  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  38.0  41.0  46.0  34.0  51.0  40.0  44.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         34.4  38.6  42.9  47.3  54.3  55.0  55.0  55.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  -4.0  -9.0   0.0  11.0  14.0  78.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  49.0  51.0  50.0  52.0  55.0  58.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   5.0   3.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.2%        4.5%        7.9%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%        6.4%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        4.5%        4.3%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%