Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210905 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10     50.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  19.3  21.3  20.3  20.0  18.1  12.3  13.1  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  42.0  44.0  39.0  44.0  42.0  41.0  37.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         40.7  45.1  49.6  52.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   0.0  -4.0 -10.0  -8.0  38.0  31.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  47.0  47.0  46.0  51.0  52.0  56.0  59.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   6.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.2%        5.0%        8.6%
 25kt / 24h        5.4%        7.8%        6.6%
 30kt / 24h        5.4%        5.3%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        5.3%        5.2%        5.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%