Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210906 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70     51.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  20.7  17.4  16.8  21.4  13.7  10.6  11.8  F  N  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  45.0  41.0  35.0  52.0  39.0  43.0  34.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         42.9  47.3  52.0  54.3  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0 -11.0  -2.0   8.0  28.0  50.0   8.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  44.0  46.0  50.0  53.0  56.0  59.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   5.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.0%        3.6%        5.3%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%        7.7%        6.1%
 30kt / 24h        4.0%        5.5%        4.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%        5.4%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        4.8%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%