Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210906 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30     52.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  17.5  19.1  21.8  14.8  10.4  12.8  12.9  N  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  40.0  34.0  43.0  45.0  43.0  42.0  29.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         52.3  57.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0  -5.0  -2.0 -26.0  35.0  50.0  47.0  54.0  U  U  U VU  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  43.0  45.0  47.0  52.0  54.0  58.0  60.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   7.0   2.0   1.0   4.0  -8.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.5%        3.5%        4.0%
 25kt / 24h        3.5%        7.3%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        3.5%        5.4%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%        5.2%        4.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        4.6%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h       27.9%        4.3%       16.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%