Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80     52.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  17.5  20.6  19.8  11.3  11.1  12.2  13.8  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  31.0  40.0  51.0  40.0  43.0  32.0  25.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0  20.0   6.0  33.0  66.0  36.0  80.0  53.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  44.0  46.0  47.0  50.0  53.0  58.0  63.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   1.0  -1.0  -7.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.7%        4.0%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h        4.7%        9.1%        6.9%
 30kt / 24h        3.9%        6.5%        5.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%        6.5%        5.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        5.9%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h       34.4%        5.2%       19.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%