Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20     53.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  17.5  20.1  18.3   9.7  12.7  10.8  22.4  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  40.0  53.0  48.0  45.0  43.0  29.0  22.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  54.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  -5.0  31.0  41.0  30.0  16.0  48.0  82.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  45.0  47.0  48.0  51.0  57.0  58.0  63.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   5.0   5.0   6.0   2.0  -1.0   0.0  17.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.0%        7.6%        9.3%
 25kt / 24h       10.5%       16.1%       13.3%
 30kt / 24h        9.9%       12.7%       11.3%
 35kt / 24h        9.9%       12.7%       11.3%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%       11.5%        6.8%
 45kt / 36h       49.6%       11.8%       30.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%