Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70     54.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  21.5  19.4  11.9  11.4  12.9  19.1  29.3  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  52.0  49.0  41.0  44.0  33.0  26.0  14.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  42.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -30.0  47.0  39.0  54.0  32.0  36.0  39.0  39.0 VU  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  47.0  48.0  51.0  56.0  61.0  58.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  -3.0  11.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.7%        6.2%        9.5%
 25kt / 24h       11.4%       14.2%       12.8%
 30kt / 24h       11.4%       10.4%       10.9%
 35kt / 24h       11.4%       10.4%       10.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.5%        9.6%        6.1%
 45kt / 36h       57.9%       11.7%       34.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%