Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210907 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.00     55.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  13.2  10.2   8.1  14.6  17.8  24.4  23.0  N  F  F VF  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  41.0  39.0  39.0  34.0  24.0  12.0  29.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  52.9  40.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  66.0  50.0  60.0  52.0  11.0  48.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  48.0  49.0  51.0  53.0  57.0  57.0  64.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   6.0   3.0  -1.0   4.0  27.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        2.2%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        6.4%       10.2%        8.3%
 30kt / 24h        4.7%        6.8%        5.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%        6.3%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        6.3%        3.8%
 45kt / 36h       35.4%        4.0%       19.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%        2.4%        4.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%