Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210908 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20     57.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  13.7  11.9  14.4  20.1  21.1  26.9  47.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  39.0  36.0  28.0  18.0  17.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  44.4   4.2 -52.1  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  48.0  51.0  20.0  26.0  27.0  63.0  84.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  52.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  57.0  56.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -3.0  -6.0   1.0  13.0  35.0   8.0 -36.0  N  N  F  N  U VU  U VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.9%        7.4%        9.6%
 25kt / 24h       14.3%       19.6%       17.0%
 30kt / 24h       12.8%       14.7%       13.7%
 35kt / 24h       10.9%       14.7%       12.8%
 40kt / 24h        4.8%       14.6%        9.7%
 45kt / 36h       41.5%        7.6%       24.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%