Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210908 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.10     57.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.5  11.6  13.8  15.2  18.5  23.3  34.4  59.3  F  F  F  F  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  34.0  29.0  28.0  15.0  26.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  60.1  45.5 -35.3 -50.5  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  48.0  34.0  35.0  13.0  77.0  97.0 127.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  55.0  57.0  55.0  62.0  52.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0   3.0   3.0  18.0  35.0   5.0 -35.0  F  N  N  N VU VU  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.5%        6.4%        7.5%
 25kt / 24h       10.7%       17.8%       14.2%
 30kt / 24h        9.6%       13.0%       11.3%
 35kt / 24h        7.5%       13.0%       10.3%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%       13.0%        8.0%
 45kt / 36h       29.7%        5.4%       17.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%